Creating a Winning Super Bowl Betting Guide: Tips, Strategies, and Data-Driven Insights
April 01 2023

Creating a Winning Super Bowl Betting Guide: Tips, Strategies, and Data-Driven Insights


The Super Bowl is one of the biggest sporting events in the world, with millions of fans tuning in every year to watch the game, the halftime show, and the commercials. But for many sports bettors, the Super Bowl is also an opportunity to make some serious money.

In this guide, we’ll explore some tips, strategies, and data-driven insights for creating a winning Super Bowl betting guide. Whether you’re a seasoned sports bettor or a beginner, this guide will provide you with the tools you need to make informed betting decisions and improve your chances of winning big.

Section 1: Super Bowl Betting 101

Before we dive into specific betting strategies and tips, let’s start with the basics of Super Bowl betting. Here are a few things you need to know:

  • The point spread: The point spread is a way of evening the odds between two teams. The favorite team is given a certain number of points, while the underdog team is given a certain number of points. The point spread is designed to encourage betting on both teams and create a more even betting field.
  • The moneyline is the simplest and most popular form of Super Bowl betting. It involves betting on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread. Each team is assigned odds, which indicate the amount of money that must be wagered to win $100.
  • The over/under: The over/under is a way of betting on the total number of points that will be scored in the game. Bettors can bet on whether the total will be over or under a certain number set by the sportsbook.

Understanding these basic betting options is key to creating a winning Super Bowl betting guide. In the next sections, we’ll explore some more advanced strategies and tips for maximizing your profits on Super Bowl Sunday.

Super Bowl betting offers a variety of options for sports bettors to wager on. In this section, we will cover the three most popular types of Super Bowl bets:

Understanding the Basics of Super Bowl Betting

Moneyline Betting: 

Moneyline betting is the simplest and most common form of betting on the Super Bowl. This type of betting involves picking which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread. Each team is assigned odds, which represent the amount of money that must be wagered to win $100. 

Spread Betting: 

Also known as point spread betting, this type of bet is based on a margin of victory. The favorite is given a handicap to cover, while the underdog is given points to use as an advantage. The odds are typically set at -110, meaning a bettor would need to wager $110 to win $100.

Total (Over/Under) Betting: 

This bet is based on the total points scored in the game. Bettors can wager on whether the total will be over or under the set line, with the odds set at -110 for both sides.

Understanding Common Super Bowl Prop Bets

Prop bets, short for proposition bets, are wagers placed on events or outcomes that do not directly affect the outcome of the game. They are a popular type of bet during the Super Bowl, and can range from the straightforward to the downright quirky. Here are some of the most common Super Bowl prop bets explained:

First Touchdown Scorer:

This prop bet involves choosing which player will score the first touchdown of the game. It can be a fun and potentially profitable bet, but also carries a high degree of uncertainty.

Super Bowl MVP:

This prop bet involves picking which player will be named the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of the Super Bowl. It’s important to consider not only the likelihood of a player having a standout performance, but also the perception of the performance by the voters.

Length of the National Anthem:

This prop bet involves predicting the length of time it will take for the singer to complete the National Anthem before the game. It’s a fun bet that requires no football knowledge, but can be difficult to predict accurately.

Super Bowl LVII is approaching, and it’s essential to know the key betting trends of the past 10 years. Here are some trends that you should consider before placing your bets:

Average Depth of Target (aDOT) in the First Half of Super Bowls: 

Over the past 10 years, the average depth of target in the first half of Super Bowls has been 9.7 yards. Teams that have thrown the ball deeper in the first half have won eight of the past 10 Super Bowls.

Winning Team’s Point Differential: 

Over the past 10 years, the average margin of victory in the Super Bowl has been 13.2 points. Eight of the past 10 Super Bowls have been won by at least a touchdown, and six of the past 10 have been won by double digits.

Over/Under Betting Trends: 

Over the past 10 years, the Over/Under line has been set at an average of 47.9 points. The Over has hit in six of the past 10 Super Bowls, and the Under has hit in four of the past 10. The highest-scoring Super Bowl in the past decade was Super Bowl LII, with a total of 74 points scored, while the lowest-scoring Super Bowl was Super Bowl LIII, with only 16 points scored.

Section 3: Advanced Super Bowl Betting Strategies

When it comes to betting on the Super Bowl, finding value bets is crucial for maximizing your profits. In this section, we’ll discuss advanced strategies for identifying value bets and the factors to consider when evaluating them.

One way to find value bets is by using advanced analytics. This involves looking at statistical data, such as player and team performance metrics, to identify undervalued betting opportunities. For example, if a player has consistently outperformed their season average in previous Super Bowls, there may be value in betting on them to exceed their performance expectations.

Another key factor to consider when evaluating value bets is the context of the game. This includes factors such as injuries, weather conditions, and team motivation. For instance, if one team is playing for a chance at their first Super Bowl win in franchise history, they may be more motivated and have a greater sense of urgency to win the game.

By considering both advanced analytics and game context, you can identify value bets that may have been overlooked by the general betting public. Remember, the key to success in Super Bowl betting is finding value where others may not see it.

Bankroll Management Strategies

Determining Your Unit Size:

Before placing any bets on the Super Bowl, it’s important to determine your unit size. Your unit size should be a percentage of your overall bankroll, typically between 1-5%. For example, if you have a bankroll of $1,000, your unit size could be $50. This will help you manage your bankroll and avoid losing all of your funds on a single bet.

How to Allocate Your Bankroll:

Once you have determined your unit size, it’s important to allocate your bankroll effectively. You should never bet more than your unit size on a single bet, and you should spread your bets across multiple games or markets. It’s also important to consider the odds and potential payouts when deciding how much to bet on each game.

The Importance of Discipline:

Perhaps the most important aspect of bankroll management is discipline. It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of the Super Bowl and make impulsive bets, but this can quickly lead to a depleted bankroll. Set a budget for yourself and stick to it, regardless of whether you are winning or losing. Remember that betting on the Super Bowl should be a form of entertainment, not a way to make a quick profit.

Section 4: Super Bowl LVII Betting Picks

Moneyline Pick

The moneyline bet is a simple wager on which team will win the Super Bowl outright. For Super Bowl LVII, our top moneyline pick is the Kansas City Chiefs. With an explosive offense led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have the potential to outscore any opponent. Additionally, their defense has shown improvement throughout the season, making them a well-rounded team.

Spread Pick

The spread bet involves betting on the margin of victory for a team. For Super Bowl LVII, our top spread pick is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Although the Chiefs have a strong offense, the Buccaneers have a formidable defense that has shown the ability to disrupt even the best quarterbacks. With home-field advantage and a balanced offense led by veteran quarterback Tom Brady, the Buccaneers have a good chance of covering the spread.

Total Pick

The total bet is a wager on the combined score of both teams in the Super Bowl. For Super Bowl LVII, our top total pick is the over. Both the Chiefs and Buccaneers have high-powered offenses that are capable of putting up a lot of points. Additionally, their defenses have shown some vulnerabilities throughout the season, which could lead to a high-scoring game.

Super Bowl MVP: 

One of the most popular prop bets for the Super Bowl is predicting who will win the MVP award. This bet allows you to wager on which player will have the biggest impact on the game and be recognized as the most valuable player. Some top contenders for Super Bowl LVII include Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Travis Kelce.

First Touchdown Scorer: 

Another exciting prop bet is predicting who will score the first touchdown of the game. This bet allows you to wager on a specific player from either team to score the first touchdown of the game. Some top contenders for Super Bowl LVII include Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette.

Length of the National Anthem: 

One of the more unique prop bets for the Super Bowl is predicting the length of the national anthem. This bet allows you to wager on whether the performance of the national anthem will be over or under a certain time limit, typically set by the sportsbook. Some sportsbooks may also offer prop bets on the performer’s outfit, whether they will forget or omit any lyrics, and other details of the performance.

Section 5: Super Bowl Betting Resources

Headline Analysis Tools

Headline analysis tools can help you stay up to date on the latest news and trends surrounding the Super Bowl. By monitoring news headlines and social media activity, these tools can provide valuable insights into which team is being favored by the public, which players are generating buzz, and other factors that could impact your betting decisions. Some popular headline analysis tools include Google Trends, Twitter Search, and Reddit.

Recommended Super Bowl Betting Sites

Choosing the right sportsbook is crucial for a successful Super Bowl betting experience. Look for a sportsbook that offers competitive odds, a wide range of betting options, and reliable payment methods. Some of our top recommended Super Bowl betting sites include Bovada, BetOnline, and DraftKings.


The Super Bowl is one of the biggest sporting events of the year and offers a wide range of betting opportunities for both novice and experienced bettors. By following sound bankroll management strategies, considering our top betting picks, and utilizing valuable resources like headline analysis tools and recommended betting sites, you can increase your chances of having a profitable Super Bowl betting experience.

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